Yasui Food (603345): Exceeds expectations again and resonates with quality management and excellent management

Yasui Food (603345): Exceeds expectations again and resonates with quality management and excellent management

The company released a quick performance report and exceeded market expectations: in 2019, it achieved revenue of 52.

67 ppm / + 23.

66%, realized operating profit4.

68 ppm / + 39.

58%, net profit attributable to mothers3.

7.3 billion / + 38.

14%.

Revenue in the fourth quarter alone was 17.

7.4 billion / + 34.

51%, realized operating profit1.

68 ppm / +89.

41%, net profit attributable to mothers1.

3.5 billion / + 82.

65%.

Core point of view In the fourth quarter, revenue continued to increase rapidly, and the company’s expansion 成都桑拿网 and brand power continued to appear against the backdrop of the industry’s high business climate.

1) The company ‘s revenue continues to grow at a high level. We believe that the industry ‘s demand continues to boom, and the company ‘s capacity expansion plan is detailed, and the promotion of fruitful results (increase in new capacity such as Sichuan) is the basis; 2) The company began to lead the industry in the third quarter to cope with rising costsIncreased prices for most products many times, but the impact on sales was strong due to strong demand and brand power; 3) The advancement of stocking brought by the early Spring Festival in 20 years also increased the sales of q4; excellent management promoted the companyIn the upward cycle with obvious cost, the profitability has increased in the reverse direction, and the profit 重庆耍耍网 in the fourth quarter alone was significantly higher than expected.

The company scale realized operating margin of 7.

08% / + 0.

74pct, the operating profit margin in the fourth quarter alone was 9.

45% / + 2.

74pct, under the obvious influence of the upward cost of pork, the net profit rate has continued to increase in the opposite direction. We believe that the main breakthroughs are two driving forces: 1) through appropriate price increases, flexible adjustment of the raw material structure (reducing the proportion of pork used and reducing the proportion of meat sales))), Etc. to control the gross profit margin is always controllable; 2) Excellent cost management and control, and at the same time, it can prevent the scale effect from gradually emerging under the expansion of the land sales model, and promote the counter-cyclical improvement of profitability.

We continue to be optimistic about the probability of resonance between high-quality circuits and excellent companies for a long time!

The quick-frozen industry benefits from the socialization of housework + catering supply chain building, and is a high-quality racetrack with long-term growth logic. The company, as a minority leader, has repeatedly demonstrated regional expansion + category expansion capabilities, and its advantages are significant: 1) the company has a complete channel systemThe first-mover advantage has been formed, especially the nationwide catering sales channel builds a moat; 2) New production capacity continues to land, and we believe that 19 years is a year with relatively little new capacity contribution, and 20-21 new capacity continues, which is expected to contribute 20% +The annual growth of the company ‘s annual volume will further open up the space for growth; 3) The company ‘s excellent business management and keen market sense of smell have also been repeatedly verified in the events or cost fluctuations of the previous period. We believe that the epidemic situation as a one-time exogenous variable has the same impactManagement, bringing opportunities for long-term layout.

Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions As the 19-year performance exceeds expectations and overlaps with the 20-year epidemic, we adjust the company’s annual income for 2019-2021 to be 1.

59/1.

72/2.

55 yuan (1 before adjustment).

39/1.

69/2.

12) Due to the one-time disturbance of the epidemic in 20 years, the company’s valuation method is used to correspond to 26 times the PE in 21 years. Since the company is a leader in the fast-frozen industry and its performance has exceeded that of its peers, a 20% estimated premium is given, corresponding to a target price of 79.

56 yuan, maintain “Buy rating”.

Risk warning: raw material price risk, food safety risk, capacity expansion is less than expected risk